Two states California online poker proponents will watch closely in 2017 are Pennsylvania and New York.
Both made waves in 2016 with Pennsylvania nearly becoming the 4th US state to regulate iGaming.
New York came out of nowhere to push an iPoker bill through the Senate and some think they will be a major player in 2017. Today we will take a quick look at both states and give our prediction as to their chances of passing iPoker.
New York - Will Take the Lead if PA Stumbles
We'll be the first to admit that we didn't see iPoker having a chance of passing in 2016. Then S5302 passed by a margin of 53-5 in June and the poker world did a collective double take.
While the bill failed to gain any traction in the Assembly, this unexpected movement bodes well for the bill in 2017. Assemblyman Gary Pretlow was pessimistic about the bill's chances last year but he can use the results of S5302 to prove that there is lawmaker support for a measure.
Pretlow has worked on this issue in the past but lawmakers didn't appear ready to take a progressive stance. Times appear to be changing and part of the argument may center around providing consumer protections to New York citizens who might be playing on unregulated poker sites.
We should get an idea by February in which direction Pretlow feels the Assembly is leaning but there's been little to suggest that he will not push the issue hard now it is clear that passing the bill in the Assembly virtually guarantees the measure getting to Gov. Andrew Cuomo's desk.
Should Pennsylvania drag its heels on passing a bill in the Spring, there's a chance that New York could leapfrog PA to become the 4th state to regulate iPoker.
Chances of NY Passing iPoker in 2017: 75-85%
If Legislative Changes Don't Change Votes - PA Crosses the Finish Line in 2017
Pennsylvania was supposed to be the state that regulated iGaming in 2016. And for most of the year, it appeared on pace to do so.
After the state House passed HB 1887, most everyone assumed that the Senate would follow suit. This was reinforced when iGaming was earmarked for $100 million in the 2017 state budget.
Then it was announced that the Senate would delay debating the issue until after the 2016 Presidential Elections. Ok, no problem. They wouldn't let things slip away, right?
Wrong. The Senate failed to bring the bill to a vote and it effectively has died. As such, lawmakers will start over again next year. The problem is that there is some uncertainty as to where both chambers will sit on the issue.
There will be some turnover following the election season and it is unclear as to whether there will be enough votes to push through a measure for a second straight year.
Should this concern prove unfounded, then there is a solid chance that PA passes a bill in 2017. However, there are some that object to the measures, including State Senator Robert Tomlinson.
He is rehashing the typical anti-iGaming points that center around cannibalization of the market along with underage and problem gamblers.
With $100 million on the line for the state, there will have to be a line of opponents behind Tomlinson to prevent this measure from passing. The question is whether they will get things done early in the year or if the process drags out.
If lawmakers push the matter to recoup the $100 million in danger of being lost, we could see iPoker legal in PA by the World Series of Poker. In either event, we see online poker happening in 2017.
Chance of iGaming Passing in PA in 2017: 90 - 95% (We don't say 100% because nothing is guaranteed in politics.)