At the midway point of February, we've yet to hear about a new iPoker bill from either chamber of the California legislature. This is a bit unusual considering that the state has long been considered the next to regulate online poker in the United States.
However, events of the last couple of years leave doubt as to whether a bill can pass in the state and presently there's some concern whether they will even attempt to address the issue in 2017.
Below is a couple of reason why California is hesitant on moving forward with iPoker legislation in 2017.
Gray's Betrayal May Require New Champion
Assemblyman Adam Gray was the primary champion for online poker legislation in 2016 and his proposal initially made great headway when a deal was struck with the horse racing industry to remove one of two major roadblocks.
Gray's attempt at removing the other proved to much more tenuous and his attempts to force a compromise alienated many on both sides of the issue. Initially, Gray called for bad actors to accept with a ban or to pay a fine to apply for a license in California.
When tribal interests balked at the buyout, Gray decided to amend the bill at the last minute to force a hard five-year ban with no option for a buyout.
The PokerStars Coalition immediately opposed the new version of the bill and some lawmakers pulled their support and even questioned the ethics of Assemblyman Gray.
Due to his last minute shenanigans, some feel that Gray may decide against championing the cause in 2017. If this is the case, online poker will need a new supporter and there doesn't appear to be an heir apparent to that cause.
PokerStars, PokerStars, PokerStars
Everyone knows that the bad actor clause, or rather the PokerStars clause, is the lynchpin of the bill. If this matter gets resolved, the bill will finally move forward in some significant way.
The problem is that there doesn't appear to be a path forward for the bill as long as PokerStars continues to pursue a license. Tribal consensus is no closer today than it was last year and tribes want their pound of flesh from PokerStars. Some tribes are still steadfast that PokerStars should not participate.
There are rumblings that PokerStars may finally give up on California, but those are still rumblings at this point. We believe that should Pennsylvania and New York move forward with regulation and choose to license PokerStars, this may give the company the push to abandon California.
At this point, PokerStars abandoning California appears to be the only way to move forward with any type of legislation.
What to Expect Moving Forward
Looking ahead to the rest of the legislative year, it is important that a bill start to come to the forefront within the next couple of months.
In the past, we've already had at least one bill filed and efforts to bring those bills to hearings have already begun. The fact we've yet to even hear rumors of a new bill does not bode well for the process.
However, a couple of things could still happen that could speed things along. First, a new champion for the issue that is respected by both parties could reestablish dialogue by both sides. At present, there doesn't appear to be such a champion.
The other major event that could get parties jumping is a PokerStars withdrawal. Such a withdrawal would virtually eliminate the need to worry about bad actor language and lawmakers can make the clause as tough as they want without worrying about offending PokerStars.
Ultimately, we believe that if a bill is not filed before May, we won't see any efforts made to regulate iPoker in California in 2017. There's still time, but we need to see some major developments to believe anything will happen this year.